Predictive Research for Online Market and Product Testing
Predictive test marketing
Now that we have considered some deficiencies of the questionnaire method regarding future questions, how can we apply the prediction market method to various market research projects? We will focus here on innovation, new product development and marketing mix decisions. Predictive test marketing (PTM) is a recent alternative to physical test marketing in shops or to simulated test marketing (STM) such as Nielsen BASES and IPSOS Designor.
PTM uses standardized prediction market test patterns to forecast consumer reactions to new concepts, product offers, communication strategies, pricing changes, and promotions. This section refers to the specific capabilities of our leading PTM platform, Prediki PROMPT® (Predictive Research for Online Market & Product Testing).
Prediki PROMPT® expresses forecasts as sales volume or other real-world indicators (KPIs) which are directly meaningful to marketing decision makers. For any one project, PTM uses that same KPI yardstick in all countries and throughout all project stages, from the initial idea test right to the price test, and even for real-time tracking after launch.
STM however, asks respondents to rate the innovations for certain general attributes, such as liking, relevance, or uniqueness. It is self-evident that it is difficult to compare these constructs across product categories and countries and over time. STM comparables database may be outdated, different due to cultural norms, or simply not comparable due to a high degree of innovation.
Prediki PROMPT delivers both quantitative and qualitative results in parallel. The former are calculated in real-time from participants’ trading activity on Prediki’s virtual stock market, while the latter are extracted through text and sentiment analysis from participants’ market talk.
Next: When to use PROMPT