Future Trends

From POSSIBLE to PROBABLE FUTURES

Research into future trends is often long on theories and short on verifiable predictions. With Prediki, you can quantify, explain and verify trends which will impact your activity, industry or business.

Prediki detects and categorises emerging trends in single countries, entire regions or worldwide. The method distinctively separates short-lived fads from long-term changes, even ten or more years out. Better knowledge of probable futures will help you make better decisions in strategy and execution.

The Prediki Solution

Prediki improves significantly on the traditional, round-based Delphi method. Participants continuously contribute numeric forecasts and verbal comments. Prediki's engine aggregates and analyses comments into sentiment pies and semantic arguments. Participants are incentivised for predictive accuracy.

HOW IT WORKS

Prediki applies a systematic framework of narratives for “possible futures” in conjunction with forecasts of empirical manifestations to narrow them down to “probable futures” and trend drivers.

  1. Individualism | Collectivism
  2. Indulgence | Restraint
  3. Long-term | Short-term Orientation
  4. Uncertainty Avoidance | Risk Acceptance
  5. Equality | Power Distance
  6. Holistic | Task-oriented

Future trend projects require a more elaborate preparatory phase, followed by an otherwise standard fieldwork and analysis phase. Pre-existing future concepts must be captured and converted into short stories. Not just one, but a whole range of KPI’s must be evaluated for their suitability as “reality check” yardsticks.

Preparation & Setup

Possible futures: Interview stakeholders to discover meaningful real-world proxy KPIs which will be indicative of possible futures.

Identify experts: Recruit participants with above average subject matter interest and many diverse perspectives.

Collect predictions: Participants enter their forecast for verifiable future KPI realisations and certain possible futures occurring.

Find reasons: Participants try to convince others of their opinion to push their predictions and maximise their incentive.