Future Trend studY

POSSIBLE FUTURES, PROBABLE FUTURES

Research into future trends is often long on theories and short on verifiable predictions. Prediki provides hard forecasts for future facts as a tangible expression of possible futures. We can both quantify as well as explain technological and societal trends by cultural changes which will impact the client’s specific industry and markets.

Prediki can detect and categorise emerging trends in single countries, entire regions or worldwide. Our methodology distinctively separates short-lived fads from long-term changes towards probable futures which will require bold decisions in corporate strategy and execution.

The Prediki Solution

Best described as an interactive, real-time Delphi method, Prediki improves significantly on the traditional round-based approach. Participants continuously contribute forecasts and debate their reasons. Prediki aggregates forecasts and analyses comments for sentiment and semantic codes in near real-time. Participants are incentivised for accuracy which motivates them to get it right.

HOW IT WORKS

Prediki applies a systematic framework of narratives for “possible futures” in conjunction with forecasts of empirical manifestations to narrow them down to “probable futures” and trend drivers.

  1. Individualism | Collectivism
  2. Indulgence | Restraint
  3. Long-term | Short-term Orientation
  4. Uncertainty Avoidance | Risk Acceptance
  5. Equality | Power Distance
  6. Feminine (Holistic) | Masculine (Task-oriented)

Future trend projects require a more elaborate preparatory phase followed by an otherwise standard fieldwork and analysis phase. Pre-existing future concepts must be captured and converted into short stories. Not just one, but a whole range of KPI’s must be evaluated for their suitability as “reality check” yardsticks.

Preparation & Setup

Possible futures: Stakeholder interviews identify trends of pre-existing interest and meaningful real-world proxy KPIs which will be indicative of future success or failure.

Identify experts: Recruit consumers with above average subject matter interest and distill experts according to prediction success.

Explicit predictions: Experts forecast future KPI realisations and convince other experts of their opinion to maximise their incentive.

Implicit causality: Participants’ market talk resonates the possible futures which reveals their sentiment and underlying micro-trends.